Dubai’s real estate market opened 2026 with record-breaking momentum, though analysts say the pace of growth is starting to moderate after several years of exceptional gains.
A Record-Setting Start to 2026
Dubai recorded its strongest-ever single month in real estate history in January 2026, with total transaction value reaching AED72.4 billion, a 63 percent jump year-on-year. That momentum carried through the first quarter, which closed with AED252 billion in transactions across more than 60,000 deals, a 31 percent year-on-year increase. The number of investors also hit a fresh record, growing to 48,448.
Off-Plan Demand Remains Strong
Off-plan sales rose to 30,000 transactions worth AED73.4 billion in the first quarter, up sharply from the same period last year. This shows buyers remain confident in committing to projects with delivery timelines two to three years out, even as the secondary market saw some softening tied to brief regional geopolitical uncertainty earlier in the year.
Why Growth Is Expected to Slow
Analysts at Cushman and Wakefield expect price appreciation to moderate to around 5 to 8 percent in 2026, a clear slowdown from the 12 to 22 percent annual growth seen during 2024 and 2025. With roughly 120,000 new units expected to enter the market this year, increased supply is likely to ease some of the pressure on both prices and rents.
What This Means for Buyers and Investors
Despite the moderation, demand remains historically strong by any normal measure, and mortgage transactions continue to grow steadily, supported by improving household incomes and favourable lending conditions. Analysts suggest the market is shifting into a more balanced and sustainable phase rather than cooling significantly.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much were Dubai’s Q1 2026 property transactions worth?
Total transactions reached AED252 billion across more than 60,000 deals.
Are Dubai property prices still rising?
Yes, though growth is expected to moderate to around 5 to 8 percent in 2026, down from much higher rates in prior years.
Why is growth expected to slow this year?
An estimated 120,000 new units entering the market in 2026 is expected to ease pressure on prices and rents.
