Pakistan’s wheat output for the 2025-26 Rabi season is estimated at 29.31 million tonnes, a modest improvement over last year’s crop, though the country is still set to fall short of its official production target.
Official Estimates From the Federal Committee on Agriculture
The Federal Committee on Agriculture estimated wheat production at 29.31 million tonnes across 9.385 million hectares, a 3.13 percent increase over last year’s 28.42 million tonnes. Punjab is expected to contribute the largest share at 22.04 million tonnes, followed by Sindh with 4.4 million tonnes, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with 1.41 million tonnes, and Balochistan with 1.45 million tonnes.
A More Cautious USDA Outlook
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service offered a notably lower estimate, projecting production between 27.5 and 28.9 million tonnes, citing a 7 percent reduction in cultivated area and unusually dry, hot conditions during the growing season. The agency noted rainfall was nearly 39 percent below average in some areas, with above-average temperatures hurting grain filling at a critical growth stage.
What This Means for Wheat and Flour Prices
As of earlier this year, open market wheat prices ranged between Rs3,700 and Rs4,650 per 40kg bag, with the government’s Punjab support price set at Rs3,500 per 40kg. Flour prices in retail markets have ranged between Rs4,500 and Rs5,837 for a 50kg pack, a significant cost for households given wheat’s central role in Pakistan’s diet.
Other Crop Estimates and Looking Ahead
The same committee meeting projected potato production up 23.2 percent to 12.171 million tonnes and gram output rising sharply by 52.4 percent, while tomato and onion production are expected to decline slightly. Targets for the upcoming Kharif season were also set, including 9.64 million bales of cotton and 9.17 million tonnes of rice.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much wheat did Pakistan produce this season?
Official estimates put production at 29.31 million tonnes, though USDA estimates are lower, between 27.5 and 28.9 million tonnes.
Why did wheat production estimates vary so widely?
Differing assessments of dry weather impact and cultivated area led to a gap between official Pakistani estimates and USDA projections.
What is the current wheat support price in Punjab?
The government support price for Punjab has been set at Rs3,500 per 40kg bag.
